Table 5.14
Population in urban and rural areas, and proportion urban, for the world and major
areas, 1950–2030
Development group 1950 1975 2000 2030
Urban population (millions)
World 750 1542 2847 4964
More-developed regions 447 734 906 1017
Less-developed regions 304 808 1941 3948
Least-developed countries 14 50 171 582
Africa 32 102 301 805
Asia 244 592 1348 2638
Latin America and the Caribbean 69 197 391 603
Northern America 110 180 243 334
Europe 287 455 544 554
Oceania 8 15 21 31
Rural population (millions)
World 1769 2524 3210 3306
More-developed regions 367 314 286 200
Less-developed regions 1402 2209 2924 3106
Least-developed countries 183 298 487 732
Africa 189 304 493 684
Asia 1155 1804 2324 2312
Latin America and the Caribbean 98 125 128 121
Northern America 62 64 72 62
Europe 261 221 184 116
Oceania 5 6 9 11
Percentage urban
World 29.8 37.9 47.0 60.0
More-developed regions 54.9 70.0 76.0 83.6
Less-developed regions 17.8 26.8 39.9 56.0
Least-developed countries 7.1 14.4 26.0 44.3
Africa 14.7 25.2 37.9 54.0
Asia 17.4 24.7 36.7 53.3
Latin America and the Caribbean 41.4 61.2 75.3 83.3
Northern America 63.9 73.8 77.2 84.4
Europe 52.4 67.3 74.8 82.7
Oceania 61.6 72.2 70.3 73.5
Source: United Nations (2001a,c).
the number of persons living in cities rose from 0.8 billion in 1950 to nearly 2.9 billion in 2000, implying a growth rate of 2.67% per year, higher than the rate of 1.75% per year at which the world population grew over the period (Tables 5.14 and 5.15). Since the difference between these two rates determines the speed of growth of the proportion urban, between 1950 and 2000 the world population urbanized rapidly, with the proportion urban rising at a rate of 0.91% per year and passing from 30% in 1950 to 47% in 2000. Although the urbanization of the world population is expected to continue, neither the urban population nor the proportion urban is expected to grow as rapidly in the future. During 2000–2030, the world urban population is projected to increase at a rate of 1.9% per year, reaching nearly 5 billion in 1930. In addition,
Table 5.15
Urban and rural rates of population growth and rate of urbanization for the world and
major areas, 1950–2030
Development group 1950–2000 2000–2030
Urban growth rate (%)
World 2.67 1.85
More-developed regions 1.41 0.39
Less-developed regions 3.71 2.37
Least-developed countries 5.00 4.08
Africa 4.46 3.28
Asia 3.42 2.24
Latin America and the Caribbean 3.46 1.44
Northern America 1.59 1.07
Europe 1.28 0.06
Oceania 2.03 1.20
Rural growth rate (%)
World 1.19 0.10
More-developed regions 0.50 1.19
Less-developed regions 1.47 0.20
Least-developed countries 1.95 1.35
Africa 1.92 1.09
Asia 1.40 0.02
Latin America and the Caribbean 0.54 0.20
Northern America 0.29 0.48
Europe 0.70 1.52
Oceania 1.25 0.66
Rate of urbanization (%)
World 0.91 0.81
More-developed regions 0.65 0.32
Less-developed regions 1.61 1.13
Least-developed countries 2.60 1.78
Africa 1.90 1.18
Asia 1.49 1.24
Latin America and the Caribbean 1.20 0.34
Northern America 0.38 0.30
Europe 0.71 0.34
Oceania 0.27 0.15
Source: United Nations (2001c).
since the world’s total population will also increase more slowly, the proportion urban is expected to rise at a robust rate of 0.83% per year so that by 2030 the population of the world will likely be 60% urban.
In contrast with the rapid rise of the urban population, the growth of the world rural population has been slowing markedly. In 1950, seven out of every ten persons on earth lived in rural areas, and they numbered 1.8 billion. Over the course of the next fifty years, rural population growth averaged 1.19% per year and the rural population nearly doubled, reaching an estimated 3.2 billion by 2000, but during 2000–2030, rural population growth is expected to be minimal so that the number of rural inhabitants will have barely risen, reaching 3.3 billion by 2030. Consequently, most of the population growth expected during 2000–2030 will be absorbed by urban areas. Since natural increase is generally lower in urban than in rural areas and is expected to decline in both, a large proportion of the 2.1 billion persons that will be added to the urban population will be rural–urban migrants or persons who become urban dwellers as urban settlements expand geographically through the transformation of rural villages into cities.
The differences in population dynamics between the more- and the less-developed regions become accentuated when one considers the process of urbanization. Whereas the rural areas still house the majority of the population of less-developed regions, cities are the place of residence of most of the population of more-developed regions (Table 5.14). Moreover, the urban population of the less-developed regions has been growing considerably faster than that of the more-developed regions and, as a result, its share of the world urban population has been rising. In 1950 the urban population of more-developed regions was greater than that of less-developed regions (447 million vs. 304 million), but by 1975 the latter had surpassed the former (808 million vs. 734 million) and the difference between the two increased rapidly thereafter. In 2000, 1.94 billion urban dwellers were estimated to live in the less-developed regions and just 0.9 billion in the more-developed regions (Table 5.14). By 2030, with 3.9 billion urban dwellers, the less-developed regions are projected to have 79% of the world urban population, four times as many urban dwellers as the more-developed regions. To sustain such rapid population growth, the urban areas of the less-developed regions have been absorbing an increasing share of the annual increment of the urban population. Thus, whereas in 1950–1955 they absorbed 55% of the annual increment of the world urban population, by 1995–2000 they were absorbing 91% and by 2025–2030 they are expected to absorb 97%. In absolute terms, the urban areas of less-developed regions grew by 52 million persons annually in 1995–2000, whereas those of more- developed regions grew by just 5 million annually. By 2025–2030 it is expected that 69 million persons will be added annually to the urban population of the less-developed regions whereas the urban areas of more-developed regions will gain just 2 million new residents every year.
Not only are the urban areas of less-developed regions absorbing most of the population growth occurring in urban areas worldwide, they are also increasingly absorbing most of the growth of the total world population. Thus, whereas in 1950–1955 the increase in the population of the urban areas of the less-developed regions accounted for 28% of the total increment to the world population, by 1995–2000 that increase accounted for 67% of the annual increment to the world population and by 2020–2025 it is expected to surpass the latter. Such an outcome is consistent with a net transfer of population from rural to urban areas in the less-developed regions, either through migration or as a result of the territorial expansion of urban settlements and the trans-formation of rural villages into cities.
Levels and trends of urbanization also vary considerably among the world’s major areas. Europe and Northern America, being part of the developed world, exhibit high levels of urbanization (i.e., high proportions of the population living in urban areas) and slowing rates of urban population growth (Tables 5.14 and 5.15). In the developing world, Africa and Asia remain largely rural, whereas Latin America and the Caribbean considered jointly have a high proportion of their population living in cities. Oceania, which straddles the developed and the developing world, is also highly urbanized. However, high levels of urbanization do not imply equally high numbers of urban dwellers. Asia, despite having the lowest proportion urban (36.7% in 2000), has the largest number of persons living in urban areas (1.3 billion). It is followed by Europe, with 544 million urban dwellers, Latin America and the Caribbean with 391 million, and Africa with 301 million. Because of the high urban growth rates expected in Africa and Asia during 2000–2030, by 2030 those two major areas will have the largest numbers of urban dwellers in the world: 2.6 billion in Asia and 0.8 billion in Africa, although they will still be the least urbanized major areas of the world. Yet, by 2030 the level of urbanization in both Africa and Asia will have passed the 50% mark and their populations will have become more urban than rural.
Latin America and the Caribbean has been the most highly urbanized area of the developing world. In addition, between 1950 and 2000, its proportion urban grew at a rate of 1.2% per year, more rapidly than those of Europe or Northern America. Consequently, by 2000, Latin America and the Caribbean had become just as urbanized as the major areas of the developed world. Over the next thirty years, however, these three major areas are expected to experience a marked decline in the rate of urbanization since the proportion urban is already quite high (around 75%) and is expected to rise to reach values in the range of 82.6–84.4% by 2030. By that date, Latin America and the Caribbean will be the second most urbanized major area of the world (Table 5.14).
In general, the urbanization rates experienced by Europe, Northern America, and Oceania have been considerably lower than those exhibited by the major areas of the developing world. Furthermore, between 1960 and 1980 the urbanization rates in those three major areas were low or even negative as a result of the phenomenon known as “counter-urbanization” which entailed a shift in the population distribution down the urban hierarchy. Although, strictly speaking, counter-urbanization involves a redistribution of the population within the urban system and not a return of urban dwellers to rural areas, in highly urbanized countries counter-urbanization was associated with a faster aggregate growth of nonmetropolitan populations in relation to the growth of the population in metropolitan areas (Korcelli, 1984; Champion, 1998), and in some countries an increase of the rate of growth of the rural population was also noticeable. Thus, in Europe, Northern America, and Oceania, the rate of growth of the rural population increased significantly between the late 1960s and the late 1970s, although in the case of Europe the rate of rural growth remained negative. In addition, particularly low rates of urbanization were recorded in Northern America and Oceania during the same period. Although the rates of urbanization in Europe were higher than in the other major areas, by 1990–1995 they had fallen to just 0.35% per year. During 2000–2030, all three major areas are expected to experience even lower urbanization rates than during 1950–2000, ranging from 0.15% per year in Oceania to 0.34% per year in Europe (Table 5.15).
The ip side of urbanization is the reduction of rural population growth. In the major areas of the less-developed world, two types of trends are discernible. In Latin America and the Caribbean the rural growth rate has declined steadily so that by 1990–1995 it was just 0.05% per year. In contrast, in Africa and Asia, the rate of rural growth increased during the 1950s, 1960s, and even 1970s, reaching a peak in 1975–1980 in Africa (at 2.22% per year) and in 1965–1970 in Asia (at 2.18% per year). Since then, the growth rates of the rural population of Africa and Asia have been declining steadily and are expected to continue declining during 2000–2030. By 2025–2030, the rural populations of all major areas, with the exception of Africa, will be decreasing. A particularly high rate of decline is projected for the rural population of Europe ( 1.69% per year in 2025–2030), followed in magnitude by those of Northern America, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Oceania, whose rates are expected to range from 0.9 to 0.1% per year. Only Africa’s rural population will be increasing at a rate of 0.47% per year during 2025–2030. As a result of such trends, Africa’s rural population is expected to increase by about 40% between 2000 and 2030, whereas the rural populations of other major areas will change little, except in the case of Europe where a sizable reduction of the rural population is expected (Table 5.14).
One of the major changes in the spatial distribution of the world population over the past two centuries is the concentration of large numbers of people in relatively small, highly urbanized areas known as urban agglomerations. During the 20th century, the population of certain urban agglomerations rose to levels unprecedented in human history. By 2000, 19 urban agglomerations had at least 10 million inhabitants each, implying that the population of a single one of them surpassed the total population of countries such as Belgium, Hungary, or Sweden. Understandably, such populous agglomerations have become known as mega-cities. But despite their size and importance, mega-cities still account for a relatively small share of the world population. In 2000 the population of the 19 mega-cities constituted 4.3% of the world population and by 2015 the projected population of the 23 mega-cities that will exist then will account for 5.2% of the world population. In fact, most urban dwellers live in cities with fewer than 500 000 inhabitants and those cities are expected to account for a rising share of the urban population (Table 5.16). In both the more-developed and the less-developed regions, the proportion of persons living in cities with fewer than 500 000 inhabitants has been rising, reaching 40.5% in the more-developed regions and 19.4% in the less-developed regions by 2000. Because that trend is expected to continue, by 2015 a quarter of the world population is expected to live in cities with at most 500 000 inhabitants. In the highly urbanized more-developed regions, such small cities have accounted for the largest proportion of the population since 1975 and
Table 5.16
Distribution of the world population and that of more- and less-developed regions by type of settlement and size of urban settlement, 1975, 2000, and 2015
Development grouping Type of settlement and Percentage distribution Growth rate (%) number of inhabitants of urban settlement 1975 2000 2015 1975–2000 2000–2015
World 10 million or more 1.7 4.3 5.2 5.4 2.4
5 million to 10 million 3.1 2.6 3.5 0.8 3.1
1 million to 5 million 8.0 11.6 14.1 3.1 2.4
500 000 to 1 million 4.3 5.0 5.2 2.2 1.4
Fewer than 500 000 20.8 23.5 25.4 2.1 1.6
Rural areas 62.1 53.0 46.6 1.0 0.3
Total population 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.6 1.1
More-developed regions 10 million or more 3.4 5.7 5.7 2.5 0.2
5 million to 10 million 5.9 3.8 4.2 1.3 0.8
1 million to 5 million 13.9 18.5 20.6 1.6 0.9
500 000 to 1 million 6.6 7.6 7.9 1.1 0.4
Fewer than 500 000 40.2 40.5 41.4 0.5 0.3
Rural areas 30.0 24.0 20.3 0.4 1.0
Total population 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.5 0.1
Less-developed regions 10 million or more 1.1 4.0 5.1 7.1 3.0
5 million to 10 million 2.1 2.3 3.3 2.1 3.9
1 million to 5 million 6.0 10.0 12.7 3.9 3.0
500 000 to 1 million 3.5 4.3 4.7 2.7 1.9
Fewer than 500 000 14.0 19.4 22.1 3.2 2.2
Rural areas 73.2 60.1 52.0 1.1 0.4
Total population 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.9 1.3
Least-developed countries 10 million or more 0.0 1.9 2.3 – 3.6
5 million to 10 million 0.0 0.8 3.5 – 12.2
1 million to 5 million 1.6 6.8 9.3 8.2 4.3
500 000 to 1 million 1.7 2.3 1.9 3.8 1.0
Fewer than 500 000 11.1 14.1 18.0 3.4 3.9
Rural areas 85.6 74.0 64.9 1.9 1.4
Total population 100.0 100.0 100.0 2.5 2.2
Source: United Nations (2001c).
by 2015 nearly twice as many people in the developed world are expected to live in small cities than in rural areas. In contrast, rural areas will likely remain the main areas of residence of the inhabitants of the less-developed regions, accounting for 52% of the total population in developing countries in 2015 and having more than double the population of the small cities in the developing world at that time.
Among major areas, cities with fewer than 500 000 inhabitants have also provided residence for the highest proportion of urban dwellers (Table 5.17). In Europe, Northern America, Oceania, and Latin America and the Caribbean, a higher percent- age of the population lives in small cities than in rural areas. In 2000, the proportion of the population living in small cities was 47% in Europe, 36% in Latin America and the Caribbean, and close to 30% in Northern America and Oceania. In Asia and Africa those percentages were lower, at 17% and 22%, respectively. Over the next fifteen
Table 5.17
Distribution of the total population of major areas by type of settlement and size of urban settlement, 1975, 2000, and 2015
Major area Type of settlement and number of Percentage distribution inhabitants of urban settlement
1975 2000 2015
Africa 10 million or more 0.0 3.1 3.4
5 million to 10 million 1.5 0.6 2.3
1 million to 5 million 3.2 9.6 12.5
500000 to 1 million 3.3 3.1 3.5
Fewer than 500 000 17.1 21.5 24.7
Rural areas 74.8 62.1 53.5
Total population 100.0 100.0 100.0
Asia 10 million or more 1.3 4.1 5.5
5 million to 10 million 2.1 2.3 3.2
1 million to 5 million 5.9 9.0 11.7
500000 to 1 million 3.2 4.4 5.0
Fewer than 500 000 12.1 16.9 19.3
Rural areas 75.3 63.3 55.3
Total population 100.0 100.0 100.0
Europe 10 million or more 0.0 0.0 0.0
5 million to 10 million 5.4 5.2 5.3
1 million to 5 million 12.2 15.2 16.5
500000 to 1 million 6.9 7.2 7.0
Fewer than 500 000 42.8 47.1 49.8
Rural areas 32.7 25.2 21.4
Total population 100.0 100.0 100.0
Latin America and 10 million or more 6.6 11.4 10.4
the Caribbean 5 million to 10 million 5.3 3.7 5.4
1 million to 5 million 9.9 17.1 21.1
500000 to 1 million 5.2 7.2 6.7
Fewer than 500 000 34.2 35.9 36.3
Rural areas 38.8 24.7 20.1
Total population 100.0 100.0 100.0
Northern America 10 million or more 6.5 9.6 9.2
5 million to 10 million 6.4 2.2 3.7
1 million to 5 million 21.3 27.2 27.9
500000 to 1 million 7.0 8.3 7.2
Fewer than 500 000 32.6 29.9 32.9
Rural areas 26.2 22.8 19.1
Total population 100.0 100.0 100.0
Oceania 10 million or more 0.0 0.0 0.0
5 million to 10 million 0.0 0.0 0.0
1 million to 5 million 25.8 39.2 36.6
500000 to 1 million 15.4 0.0 4.3
Fewer than 500 000 30.6 31.0 30.2
Rural areas 28.2 29.8 28.8
Total population 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: United Nations (2001c).
years the number of people living in small cities is expected to increase in all major areas except Oceania. The highest growth rates in small cities are projected for Africa (3% per year) and Asia (2% per year). Despite such rapid growth in the population of small cities, by 2015 the numbers of rural dwellers in both Africa and Asia are expected to be twice the number of residents of small cities. In other major areas, the population of small cities is expected to outnumber by wide margins the number of rural dwellers.
In Europe not only does the majority of the urban population (at least 63%) live in cities with fewer than 500 000 inhabitants but, in addition, cities with populations ranging from 1 million to 5 million inhabitants have attracted a growing share of the population to the detriment of larger cities. There are only five urban agglomerations in Europe with more than 5 million inhabitants, a number that has not changed since 1975. In comparison with Europe, Northern America has seen the share of the population in small cities decline while the concentration in medium-sized cities, particularly those with populations ranging from 1 million to 5 million inhabitants, and in mega-cities has risen. However, during 2000–2015, Northern America is expected to experience a slight increase in the proportion of the population living in cities with fewer than 500 000 inhabitants and declines in the proportions living in cities with 500 000 to 5 million inhabitants and in mega-cities.
In Latin America and the Caribbean there has been a tendency for the population to become more concentrated in medium-sized cities with populations ranging from 1 million to 5 million inhabitants and in mega-cities, and the trend towards a somewhat greater concentration of the population in the upper echelons of the urban hierarchy is expected to continue until 2015. In Asia the trend towards a greater concentration of the population in larger cities, particularly mega-cities, is more clear cut and is projected to continue, particularly as levels of urbanization rise. In Africa a similar trend is noticeable, especially if one considers jointly the proportion of the population living in urban agglomerations with 5 million to 10 million inhabitants and that living in mega-cities. The overall proportion in those agglomerations has increased from 4.4% in 1975 to 6.4% in 2000 and is projected to reach 8.7% in 2015.
For Oceania, the changes in the distribution of the population by size class are difficult to interpret because they are affected by the small number of cities in that major area and the discontinuities associated with the transfer of cities from one category to the next. In 1975 the two largest cities in Oceania had populations in the range of 1 million to 5 million inhabitants. By 2000 the number of cities in that category had increased to six and that number is expected to remain unchanged until 2015. Those six cities accounted in 2000 for 55.9% of the urban population of Oceania and are expected to have 51.5% of the corresponding population in 2015, indicating that the urban population of the region is highly concentrated in a few urban agglomerations.
To conclude, let us consider the mega-cities of the world. Those populous cities are not uniformly distributed among major areas, nor are they more likely to exist in the most highly urbanized regions (Table 5.18). Thus, only one of the five mega-cities that existed in 1975 was located in Northern America and there were none in Europe. At that time Asia and Latin America had two mega-cities each and Asia had the largest number of inhabitants living in mega-cities (31 million in two mega-cities). In 2000,
Table 5.18
Population of cities with 10 million inhabitants or more, 1950, 1975, 2000, and 2015 (in millions)
City 1950 City 1975 City 2000 City 2015
1 New York 12.3 1 Tokyo 19.8 1 Tokyo 26.4 1 Tokyo 26.4
2 New York 15.9 2 Mexico City 18.1 2 Bombay 26.1
3 Shanghai 11.4 3 Bombay 18.1 3 Lagos 23.2
4 Mexico City 11.2 4 Sao Paulo 17.8 4 Dhaka 21.1
5 Sao Paulo 10.0 5 New York 16.6 5 Sao Paulo 20.4
6 Lagos 13.4 6 Karachi 19.2
7 Los Angeles 13.1 7 Mexico City 19.2
8 Calcutta 12.9 8 New York 17.4
9 Shanghai 12.9 9 Jakarta 17.3
10 Buenos Aires 12.6 10 Calcutta 17.3
11 Dhaka 12.3 11 Delhi 16.8
12 Karachi 11.8 12 Metro Manila 14.8
13 Delhi 11.7 13 Shanghai 14.6
14 Jakarta 11.0 14 Los Angeles 14.1
15 Osaka 11.0 15 Buenos Aires 14.1
16 Metro Manila 10.9 16 Cairo 13.8
17 Beijing 10.8 17 Istanbul 12.5
18 Rio de Janeiro 10.6 18 Beijing 12.3
19 Cairo 10.6 19 Rio de Janeiro 11.9
20 Osaka 11.0
21 Tianjin 10.7
22 Hyderabad 10.5
23 Bangkok 10.1
Source: United Nations (2001c).
Asia had more mega-cities than any other major area and the largest number of people living in mega-cities (150 million in 11 mega-cities). In addition, Latin America has four mega-cities, Northern America had two and Africa, with two mega-cities, had become the fourth major area having such populous cities. During 2000–2015 Asia is expected to continue having more mega-cities than any other major area and to have the largest population living in mega-cities. Yet the relative concentration of the population in mega-cities is and will continue to be considerably lower in Asia than in most of the other major areas. Thus, just 4.1% of the population of Asia is estimated to live in mega-cities in 2000, whereas 11.4% of that in Latin America and the Caribbean, and 9.6% of the population of Northern America does so.
Because mega-cities attract considerable attention from the media, policy-makers and the public at large, there seems to be a perception that they absorb a large share of urban growth and tend to grow very rapidly. In fact, the opposite is true. An analysis of past and future growth rates of the populations of mega-cities has indicated that as the city population rises its growth rate tends to decline (United Nations, 2001c). So, although some of today’s mega-cities experienced very high rates of population growth when they were still medium-sized urban centers, their rates of growth moderate considerably as they approach the 10 million mark. Thus, in 1950, the only mega-city at the time, New York, also had the lowest rate of growth among all future mega-cities (1% per year during 1950–1975). During 1975–2000, four of the mega-cities or future mega-cities had rates of growth lower or equal to 1% – Beijing, New York, Osaka, and Shanghai – and all of them had populations of at least 8 million inhabitants. Furthermore, Tokyo, the largest urban agglomeration at the time, grew at just 1.2% per year during 1975–2000. Over the period 2000–2015, 11 of the 23 mega-cities of 2015 will have growth rates of at most 1% per year and two, Osaka and Tokyo, are expected to exhibit zero growth. Nevertheless, there are cities that maintain high growth rates even when their populations have already soared. Although a moderation of the rates of growth of all current mega-cities is expected during the period 2000–2015, cities such as Lagos, Dhaka, Karachi, and Jakarta are projected to grow at fairly rapid rates, ranging from 3% to 3.6% per year.
An analysis of the patterns of growth of all cities projected to reach a population of 5 million inhabitants or more by 2015 indicates that the population growth rates of those urban agglomerations have tended to be moderate or low, especially once their population surpasses the 2 million mark (United Nations, 2001c). The most populous urban agglomerations of the developed world have exhibited relatively low rates of growth since 1950 and are expected to grow very slowly if at all during 2000–2015. Among the urban agglomerations expected to reach the 5 million mark in the future, the highest rates of population growth have occurred in those agglomerations located in the less-developed regions of the world, especially over periods when they still had low numbers of inhabitants. But even among the large urban agglomerations of the developing world, rates of population growth above 5% sustained over lengthy periods have been exceptional.
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